Tesla will lose its dominant position by 2025

New research predicts that Tesla's dominance will end in the next 4 years.

Jul 3, 2022 - 22:01
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Tesla will lose its dominant position by 2025

The market share of Tesla's electric cars could drop from today's 70% to only 11% by 2025, due to increased competition, claims the latest edition of the annual Car Wars study conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

According to new research author John Murphy, senior auto analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the two giants, Ford and General Motors will overtake Elon Musk's company by mid-decade, when each will have roughly 15% market share. 

That's an increase of about 10% compared to the current position of those two car manufacturers, with new products like the F-150 Lightning and electric pickup truck Silverado EV, which according to the same study will stimulate spectacular growth.

"Tesla's dominance in the electric vehicle market, especially in the US, is over. It will move strongly in the opposite direction in the next four years," Murphy believes.

Murphy believes that Tesla will lose its dominant position in the electric vehicle market because it is not expanding its offering fast enough to keep up with other automakers and new startups that are expanding their lineup of electric vehicles.

The mentioned analyst says that for the last 10 years, Elon Musk had a vacuum in which there was no great competition, but "that vacuum is now being largely filled with very good products in the next four years".

Tesla has repeatedly delayed the launch of the Cybertruck, and plans for the next generation Roadster have also been delayed. 

According to the company's latest updates, both the electric truck and the sports car will go into production at some point next year.

"Elon didn't move fast enough. He had a huge arrogance that other car manufacturers would never catch up and never be able to do what he was doing, but they still do it," Murphy points out.

The bosses of Ford and GM have said they plan to wrest the title of top electric vehicle maker from Tesla later this decade. 

Ford estimates it will produce two million electric vehicles worldwide by 2026, while GM says it will have a capacity of more than two million electric vehicles in North America and China combined by 2025.

Other predictions from this year's Car Wars study include the fact that about 60% of new license plates by 2026 will be for either EVs or hybrids, and that electric car sales will grow at least 10% in the US market by then.

Post by Bryan C.